Background

The CIEPD Watch Centre Report is a monthly reporting that shares information on conflict early warning and conflict incidences in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria that has the potentials of escalation to violence. The approach of the CWC is tuned towards predicting, tracking, monitoring and reporting on situations, events and actors (individual, group and institutional) with the capacity to cause violence. It uses community/location indicators.   It is built on conflict preventive measures more than mitigating.  Sources of information are mostly from community trained trackers while a high number was gotten from media. Incidences reported are verified and analyzed before the intervention.

Conflicts Reported

The following below are conflicts and early warning reported and received by the CWC during the month of September 2017 in the following states of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

Figure 1

Reported early warnings and incidents in the Niger Delta States show that Delta, Ondo, and Rivers State top the highest number of reported conflict incidences.

Figure 2

Figure 3

P r o g n o s i s

The report in the month of December 2017 as shown in Figures 1 and 2, a high increase of early warning and incidence reports in Delta, Ondo, and Rivers, while other remaining states in the Niger Delta had a decrease in reports of lethal violence in the states while other drivers are on the increase. Figure 3 shows the rate of incidents of cult-related violence, Kidnapping, theft, rape and hate speech. However, Rivers State occupied the highest level of kidnapping incidences while Ondo state recorded a high increase in Gender Violence Against Women and Girls. The CWC is monitoring the situation closely and will report appropriately to the necessary stakeholders.

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